Impact Profile - Why the Pro's use it!

Introduction

The Impact Profile feature on G1 Goldmine is a powerful tool that provides detailed and accurate profiles of both individual named horses as well as unnamed hypothetical horses. Whether you are a seasoned breeder, a trainer, or a horse racing enthusiast, this feature offers invaluable insights into the lineage, performance, and potential of your equine interests.

Accessing Impact Profile

Log in to your G1 Goldmine account, then find the horse you want using the search bar, or enter a sire and dam to build a hypothetical mating.

The depth of analysis available depends on your membership level. Impact Analysis TIGHT is a Pro feature. Members on other plans have access to the standard Impact Profile, subject to the search allowance included in their plan.

Key Features

Once you have selected a horse (or entered a hypothetical mating using a Sire and Dam), you will be presented with a comprehensive profile. Here are some of the key components you will find:

1. Impact Analysis

Impact Analysis uses an expectation algorithm. Rather than counting how many good horses a cross has produced, it compares what the cross actually produced against what its number of opportunities would predict. A cross given many chances is expected to produce more, and is judged accordingly.

A total of 20 crosses across four generations are assessed, using both male and female ancestors. Including the female ancestors matters: a pedigree's influence does not arrive only through sires, and analysis restricted to the male side leaves a substantial part of the pedigree unexamined.

2. Impact Analysis - TIGHT

Impact Analysis TIGHT is a stricter version of the standard analysis, available on G1 Goldmine Pro.

Standard Impact Analysis matches ancestors within pedigree halves. TIGHT narrows this to quarters, taking account of each ancestor's exact position in the pedigree rather than only which side it sits on. An ancestor is assessed as a maternal grandsire or a paternal great-grandsire specifically, not simply as an influence somewhere on the dam side.

The trade-off is sample size. Because TIGHT requires a closer structural match, fewer historical horses qualify for comparison, and a cross may return an X where there is too little data to compute a reliable expectation. An X is not a negative result. It means the question cannot be answered confidently on the data available.

Read the two together. Standard Impact Analysis gives the broad picture across more data. TIGHT tests whether the resemblance holds up under a stricter definition, which is useful when several candidate matings all look similar on the standard view.

3. Distance Profile

The Distance Profile is a visual tool showing the distances at which stakes winners with similar pedigrees actually won their races. It gives an evidence-based indication of the distance range a pedigree points towards, drawn from what comparable horses did rather than from theory alone.

The chart is built from the key ancestors in the pedigree, being the Sire, Grand Sire, Dam Sire and 4th Dam.

How to interpret the scores

Each cross is scored positive, negative, or unknown, and shaded so that the pattern can be read at a glance.

• Gold. A very high positive score. The cross has substantially outperformed expectation.
• Green. A positive score. The cross has outperformed expectation.
• Red. A negative score. The cross has underperformed expectation.
• X. Insufficient data to compute an expectation. Neither good nor bad.

When comparing pedigrees, the useful question is how much green and gold a profile carries relative to red, and where the red sits. A red cross deep in the pedigree carries less weight than a red cross close up.

A profile weighted towards green and gold indicates a pedigree whose crosses have a record of outperforming expectation. A profile carrying a lot of red indicates the opposite, and is worth understanding before committing to a mating rather than treating as an automatic disqualification.

What the Impact Profile does and does not tell you

The Impact Profile identifies statistical patterns. It shows how the crosses within a pedigree have performed historically, relative to the opportunities they were given.

It does not predict which horses will win. A pedigree weighted towards green and gold does not guarantee a stakes winner, and a red cross does not condemn a horse. Racing outcomes depend on conformation, soundness, training, placement and luck, none of which appear in a pedigree.

What it provides is evidence for the part of a breeding or buying decision that pedigree can actually inform, in place of reputation and guesswork.

Examples of Elite Racehorses

Examples of Underperforming Racehorses