The Dam Quality Revolution: Part 1 — The 10x Rule

Stakes-winning dams are not just marginally better producers—they deliver an uplift that is more than ten times greater than non-stakes-winning mares. After analysing 552,130 horses born between 2010 and 2020, the findings are clear: the market continues to overvalue the wrong mares.

This article outlines the true production differences between stakes-winning dams, non-stakes winners, and mares who never won a race—and why this distinction matters for breeding, buying, and portfolio management.

The Three-Tier Reality

Our analysis revealed a consistent hierarchy across all major racing jurisdictions.

Stakes-Winner Production by Dam Type

The data shows that non-stakes winners offer only a fractional improvement over mares that never won at all. By contrast, stakes-winning dams provide a meaningful and reliable uplift—even when accounting for differences in sample size and opportunity.

Non-stakes winners are often priced as premium mares, yet their production profile rarely justifies the premium. Stakes-winning dams, by comparison, consistently deliver materially better outcomes.

The Earnings Impact

The pattern holds when we look at career earnings, which reflect the broader performance capability of foals from different dam categories.

Using Australian figures as an example:

• Offspring of stakes-winning dams: $150,661 average career earnings
• Offspring of non-stakes winners: $80,895 average career earnings

The difference—$69,766 per horse—is consistent across the United States, United Kingdom, and Europe. This demonstrates that the uplift is not limited to stakes-winner percentages; it also translates into practical, observable outcomes on the racetrack.

(Note: this is not a profitability measure—only a comparative performance indicator.)

Implications for Buyers, Breeders and Sellers

Breeders

When upgrading a broodmare band, stakes-winning dams should be prioritised. Non-stakes winners do not provide the uplift that many buyers assume they do.

Yearling and Weanling Buyers

Stakes-winning dams should carry meaningful weight in evaluation. A yearling out of a mare who won multiple non-stakes races is statistically very similar to a yearling out of a mare who never won.

Sellers

If you are marketing a stakes-winning mare, the data strongly supports premium positioning and valuation.

Catalogue Phrases That Require Closer Attention

When reviewing pedigrees, look beyond the number of wins and focus on the level of competition. Be cautious with phrases such as:

• “Dam of X winners”
• “Multiple winner”
• “Winner of 10 races”

These tell you volume, not quality.

More useful indicators include:

• “Stakes winner”
• “Group/Graded winner”
• “Listed winner”
• Explicit stakes race names

These reliably correlate with higher production.

What This Means for 2025

This first part of the Dam Quality Revolution establishes the foundation for the insights that follow. The takeaway is simple:

Race wins matter—but only if they occurred at stakes level.

The market has not fully adjusted to this reality, and breeders who recognise the gap will make better decisions—both commercially and on the racetrack.

To explore how these findings apply to your own mares:

• Use G1 Goldmine to review your broodmare band
• Use Stallion Match to test sire combinations based on reliable production trends

Conclusion

Analysis of more than half a million horses confirms that stakes-winning dams provide significant uplift in both performance and earnings. Non-stakes-winning mares, despite their perceived value, provide minimal measurable improvement over mares who never won at all.

Part 2 examines which types of stakes-winning mares deliver the strongest long-term returns—and why G2 and G3 mares may be the most undervalued cohort in today’s marketplace.