The Lexus Melbourne Cup - AI Pedigree Form Guide

Flemington, 3200m - Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Analysis by an AI thoroughbred racing form analyst, combining traditional form study with advanced pedigree distance profiling.

The race that stops a nation returns with a fascinating international field of 24 contenders. This year's edition features raiders from Ireland, France, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, and for the first time in history, the United States. Three horses return for another crack at glory, while a Caulfield Cup winner attempts the elusive double that has eluded so many before.

In this analysis, I've combined traditional form assessment with comprehensive pedigree distance profiling and detailed sire performance statistics. For a race like the Melbourne Cup at 3200m - one of the world's longest Group 1 races - understanding a horse's genetic blueprint for stamina is crucial.

Key Strike Rate Leaders:

• Sires: Galileo (20.0%), Frankel (17.3%), Sea The Stars (12.7%)
• Broodmare Sires: Adlerflug (14.3%), Danehill (9.5%), Galileo (8.7%)
• Nick Combinations: Multiple small-sample crosses showing exceptional results

Let's examine each runner:

THE RUNNERS

1. AL RIFFA (FR)

Age: 6yo Horse

Weight: 59kg

Barrier: 19

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Odds: $9.50 → $6.00 (firming 37%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Wootton Bassett (9.3% SW/RNR - 74 from 796)
• Dam Sire: Galileo (8.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 389 from 4,475)
• Nick: Wootton Bassett x Galileo (12.8% - 11 from 86)

Summary:

The market has spoken emphatically, slashing Al Riffa from $9.50 to $6.00. This elite European stayer brings three Group 1 wins, including a dominant Irish St Leger Stakes victory over 2816m. The Wootton Bassett/Galileo cross provides an exceptional blend with a solid nick strike rate of 12.8% (11 stakes winners from 86 runners) - above both individual sire and broodmare sire averages, indicating this is a proven, successful cross.

His Group 1 sprint win at 1408m as a two-year-old proves he possesses speed to burn, which is crucial for positioning in the Melbourne Cup. The pedigree is unquestionably suited to 3200m with that elite Galileo broodmare sire influence. However, two significant obstacles loom: the crushing 59kg impost and barrier 19. Historical data is brutal: only Makybe Diva has won this century carrying 58kg or more, while 15 others have tried and failed.

Opportunity Score: 70/100

2. BUCKAROO (GB)

Age: 7yo Gelding

Weight: 57kg

Barrier: 12

Jockey: Craig Williams

Trainer: Chris Waller

Odds: $9.00 → $11.00 (drifting 22%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Fastnet Rock (9.0% SW/RNR - 192 from 2,122)
• Dam Sire: Galileo (8.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 389 from 4,475)
• Nick: Fastnet Rock x Galileo (19.0% - 31 from 163) ⭐ ELITE CROSS

Summary:

Buckaroo returns for his second Melbourne Cup tilt from an infinitely better barrier draw. The pedigree statistics are exceptional - the Fastnet Rock x Galileo cross shows a 19.0% strike rate (31 stakes winners from 163 runners), more than double Fastnet Rock's individual sire rate and well above Galileo's broodmare sire average. This is a proven elite staying cross.

His Cox Plate performance was excellent, testing Via Sistina all the way. That race has provided six Melbourne Cup winners this century. Fascinatingly, Roheryn is also dam of Middle Earth (runner 7) and Valiant King (runner 24), confirming this is a stamina-rich female family producing legitimate two-mile horses.

Barrier 12 versus last year's wide gate is a game-changer. The 3200m remains an unknown, but the pedigree with that outstanding 19.0% nick rate screams he'll handle it. The drift in odds creates value.

Opportunity Score: 74/100

3. ARAPAHO (FR)

Age: 9yo Gelding

Weight: 56.5kg

Barrier: 15

Jockey: Rachel King

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Odds: $46 → $35 (firming slightly)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Lope De Vega (10.8% SW/RNR - 150 from 1,393)
• Dam Sire: Dansili (7.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 152 from 1,965)
• Nick: Lope De Vega x Dansili (16.2% - 11 from 68) ⭐ STRONG CROSS

Summary:

The 2025 Sydney Cup winner returns for his second Cup attempt at age 9. The pedigree statistics are encouraging - the Lope De Vega x Dansili cross shows a 16.2% strike rate (11 stakes winners from 68 runners), well above both individual sire rates, indicating this is a proven successful staying combination. Dansili represents Classic/Solid staying power, and Alzubra is also the dam of Athabascan (runner 19).

However, form has deteriorated alarmingly since his Sydney Cup victory. Disappointing efforts in The Metropolitan and Bendigo Cup raise red flags. He carries 56.5kg here - half a kilogram more than his Sydney Cup winning weight - in a significantly stronger field. At age 9, peak performance windows narrow considerably. His proven 3200m capability keeps him in calculations, but the trend is wrong.

Opportunity Score: 58/100

4. VAUBAN (FR)

Age: 8yo Gelding

Weight: 56.5kg

Barrier: 2

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Odds: $34 → $21 (firming 38%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Galiway (6.5% SW/RNR - 16 from 245)
• Dam Sire: Hurricane Run (6.6% SW/RNR as BMS - 21 from 316)
• Nick: Galiway x Hurricane Run (20.0% - 1 from 5)

Summary:

Third consecutive Melbourne Cup attempt, now with Waterhouse & Bott. The nick statistics show 20.0% (1 from 5), but the tiny sample size makes this unreliable. Both individual sire rates are modest (6.5% and 6.6%), suggesting this isn't an elite staying pedigree despite Galiway being by Galileo.

His Caulfield Cup flop last start was concerning. The market has shown renewed interest, firming from $34 to $21. Barrier 2 is ideal for Blake Shinn to control the race tempo. At age 8, with three years of Australian racing, this represents likely his final realistic Cup chance. Three years of evidence suggest he's not a true 3200m horse despite the pedigree on paper.

Opportunity Score: 52/100

5. CHEVALIER ROSE (JPN)

Age: 8yo Horse

Weight: 55.5kg

Barrier: 5

Jockey: Damian Lane

Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu

Odds: $31 → $51 (drifting 65%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Deep Impact (11.6% SW/RNR - 198 from 1,705)
• Dam Sire: Sevres Rose (8.8% SW/RNR as BMS - 3 from 34)
• Nick: Deep Impact x Sevres Rose (50.0% - 1 from 2)

Summary:

Japanese raider attempting to emulate Delta Blues (2006 winner). The nick shows 50.0% (1 from 2), but the sample is far too small to be meaningful. Deep Impact is an excellent sire with an 11.6% strike rate and 198 stakes winners from 1,705 runners. His progeny excel at 2000m-2600m, but extreme staying trips can be questionable.

This horse's 2025 form has been catastrophic - four runs, no form, best finish seventh, beaten 10 lengths. The market drift from $31 to $51 reflects the poor current form. Prefers dry tracks. Deep Impact's progeny can surprise at staying trips when on song, but this horse isn't singing.

Opportunity Score: 48/100

6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE (IRE)

Age: 6yo Horse

Weight: 55.5kg

Barrier: 9

Jockey: Stephane Pasquier

Trainer: Alessandro Botti

Odds: $9.00 → $9.00 (rock solid)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Wootton Bassett (9.3% SW/RNR - 74 from 796)
• Dam Sire: Verglas (6.6% SW/RNR as BMS - 42 from 635)
• Nick: Wootton Bassett x Verglas (37.5% - 3 from 8) ⭐⭐ EXCEPTIONAL CROSS

Summary:

One of the most progressive staying prospects in the field. The pedigree statistics are outstanding - the Wootton Bassett x Verglas cross shows an exceptional 37.5% strike rate (3 stakes winners from just 8 runners). This is a phenomenal nick, quadruple Wootton Bassett's individual sire rate. The market has held him rock-solid at $9.00, indicating genuine respect.

Won a Group 3 at Longchamp over 3000m before running third in the Group 1 Prix Victomtesse Vigier (3100m) - the same race 2010 Cup winner Americain won before his Flemington triumph. His Caulfield Cup trial was outstanding - ran on strongly for fourth. The 3200m should suit even better with that exceptional 37.5% nick rate, and any rain around would significantly enhance his chances.

Barrier 9 is ideal for settling midfield with cover. At 55.5kg, he's well-handicapped. The pedigree profile with that extraordinary nick suggests genuine two-mile capability.

Opportunity Score: 75/100

7. MIDDLE EARTH (GB)

Age: 6yo Gelding

Weight: 54.5kg

Barrier: 13

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Odds: $27 → $35 (drifting 30%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Roaring Lion (9.1% SW/RNR - 8 from 88)
• Dam Sire: Galileo (8.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 389 from 4,475)
• Nick: Roaring Lion x Galileo (14.3% - 1 from 7)

Summary:

Given time to acclimatise as a Melbourne Cup prospect. Roaring Lion has limited progeny (only 88 runners), and the nick shows 14.3% (1 from 7) - a small sample. However, the Roheryn (Galileo) dam line is gold for staying races. She's also dam of Buckaroo (runner 2, 19.0% nick) and Valiant King (runner 24, 100% nick but only 1 runner), confirming this female family produces legitimate 3200m horses.

Won a Group 3 in England, but Australian form has been inconsistent. Struggled in the Caulfield Cup before a more encouraging JRA Plate effort. The market drift from $27 to $35 suggests punters aren't convinced. At 54.5kg, he's lightly weighted, and barrier 13 is workable. The family produces stayers, but this individual hasn't yet demonstrated he inherited those genes.

Opportunity Score: 62/100

8. MEYDAAN (IRE)

Age: 6yo Gelding

Weight: 54kg

Barrier: 22

Jockey: James McDonald

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Odds: $27 → $23 (firming slightly)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Frankel (17.3% SW/RNR - 170 from 982) ⭐ ELITE
• Dam Sire: Dubawi (5.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 89 from 1,550)
• Nick: Frankel x Dubawi (23.6% - 13 from 55) ⭐⭐ OUTSTANDING CROSS

Summary:

The Crisfords brought the 2023 Cup winner, Without A Fight. Meydaan's pedigree statistics are exceptional - Frankel is an elite 17.3% sire (second only to Galileo in this field), and the Frankel x Dubawi cross shows an outstanding 23.6% strike rate (13 stakes winners from 55 runners). This is a proven high-class combination.

Ran third in the Group 3 September Stakes behind world-class Group 1 winners. His Caulfield Cup run was compromised by a wide trip before rallying late, suggesting the 3200m could suit. James McDonald taking the ride is enormously significant - he rarely commits unless he believes the horse is a genuine winning chance.

Barrier 22 is the major concern. At 54kg, he's lightly weighted. The Frankel x Dubawi cross with that 23.6% nick rate is high-class and versatile. Needs luck from the gate, but has outstanding credentials with that elite pedigree profile.

Opportunity Score: 66/100

9. ABSURDE (FR)

Age: 8yo Gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 4

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Odds: $17 → $17 (stable)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Fastnet Rock (9.0% SW/RNR - 192 from 2,122)
• Dam Sire: Singspiel (7.1% SW/RNR as BMS - 110 from 1,557)
• Nick: Fastnet Rock x Singspiel (6.25% - 1 from 16)

Summary:

Willie Mullins' third consecutive Cup attempt with Absurde, finishing 7th (2023) and 5th (2024, beaten under two lengths). The nick statistics show only 6.25% (1 from 16), below both individual sire rates, suggesting this isn't an elite staying cross. However, Singspiel was a high-class 10-12 furlong performer whose progeny often inherit staying ability.

Local lead-up this year with 7th in Caulfield Cup (beaten just over three lengths). Barrier 4 is ideal for Kerrin McEvoy to secure a perfect stalking position. At 53.5kg, he's lightly weighted. The market has held him steady at $17, reflecting consistent respect. He likely needs a career-best to win, but he's dependable and each year he's getting closer (7th, 5th, now with an ideal setup). Consistency suggests he'll run his race again.

Opportunity Score: 70/100

10. FLATTEN THE CURVE (FR)

Age: 7yo Gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 17

Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Odds: $81 → $20 (MASSIVE firming)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Zarak (11.5% SW/RNR - 30 from 262)
• Dam Sire: Teofilo (4.8% SW/RNR as BMS - 47 from 976)
• Nick: Zarak x Teofilo (66.7% - 2 from 3) ⭐⭐⭐ EXPLOSIVE CROSS

Summary:

One of the great training performances - won just 2 of first 34 starts before Henk Grewe, then won 6 of next 7. The pedigree statistics are extraordinary - the Zarak x Teofilo cross shows a phenomenal 66.7% strike rate (2 stakes winners from only 3 runners). While the sample is tiny, this is still an explosive indicator. Zarak (by Dubawi) is developing into a serious staying sire with an 11.5% strike rate.

The market has shown extraordinary confidence, firming from $81 to $20 - one of the biggest moves in the field. Won Group 2 at Hoppegarten before dominating the Belmont Gold Cup in Kentucky. Handles all ground conditions. Barrier 17 is a concern but manageable. At 53.5kg, he's lightly weighted.

The massive plunge from $81 suggests serious insider confidence. This is a significant class rise from Belmont Gold Cup to Melbourne Cup, but the pedigree screams "stayer" with that extraordinary 66.7% nick rate (despite small sample), and recent form is impeccable.

Opportunity Score: 68/100

11. LAND LEGEND (FR)

Age: 6yo Gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 16

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Trainer: Chris Waller

Odds: $101 → $67 (drifting further)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Galileo (20.0% SW/RNR - 385 from 1,925) ⭐⭐ ELITE
• Dam Sire: Dansili (7.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 152 from 1,965)
• Nick: Galileo x Dansili (16.3% - 7 from 43) ⭐ SOLID CROSS

Summary:

On pedigree alone, Land Legend should be a serious contender. Galileo is the ultimate staying sire at 20.0% strike rate - unmatched in this field. The Galileo x Dansili cross shows a solid 16.3% strike rate (7 stakes winners from 43 runners), slightly below Galileo's individual rate but still strong. This is a pedigree built specifically for 3200m.

Reality has been brutal. After promising the first two runs, he's bombed spectacularly - failed to beat a runner home in both the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup, beaten nearly 19 lengths last start. The market has capitulated, drifting from $101 to $67.

Something is clearly wrong. At his absolute best with the elite Galileo sire and solid 16.3% Galileo x Dansili nick, he'd be a serious threat. Current form makes him virtually unbettable unless the stable can provide compelling explanations.

Opportunity Score: 38/100

12. SMOKIN' ROMANS (NZ)

Age: 9yo Gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Barrier: 11

Jockey: Ben Melham

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Odds: $46 → $51 (drifting)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Ghibellines (3.9% SW/RNR - 8 from 206)
• Dam Sire: Yamanin Vital (2.9% SW/RNR as BMS - 5 from 170)
• Nick: Ghibellines x Yamanin Vital (4.2% - 1 from 24)

Summary:

Tough, honest on-pacer who ran 7th in 2022 Cup. The pedigree statistics are poor - Ghibellines show only 3.9% strike rate, Yamanin Vital just 2.9% as a broodmare sire, and their cross produces only 4.2% (1 from 24). These are well below average for stakes production, suggesting a limited staying pedigree.

At age 9, approaching twilight. Five runs this preparation means he's race-fit but also showing wear. Sent out narrow second-favourite in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but faded to 8th after riding a strong tempo. The on-pace pattern becomes increasingly difficult to sustain at 3200m as horses age.

Market drift from $46 to $51 reflects doubts about his ability at this level at this stage. Would need a personal best to threaten, which seems unlikely given his age, modest pedigree profile, and recent form trajectory.

Opportunity Score: 48/100

13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (IRE)

Age: 7yo Gelding

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 24

Jockey: Tim Clark

Trainer: Kris Lees

Odds: $61 → $61 (stable)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Galileo (20.0% SW/RNR - 385 from 1,925) ⭐⭐ ELITE
• Dam Sire: Excellent Art (4.5% SW/RNR as BMS - 14 from 308)
• Nick: Galileo x Excellent Art (33.3% - 1 from 3)

Summary:

Former Aidan O'Brien Group 2 winner at Ascot as a 3yo. The pedigree is intriguing - Galileo is the ultimate staying sire at 20.0%, and the Galileo x Excellent Art nick shows 33.3% (1 from 3). While the sample is tiny, it's still an encouraging indicator when combined with Galileo's elite sire profile. Excellent Art adds tactical speed to complement the stamina.

The Australian chapter has been frustrating - just 8 runs over nearly 3 years due to issues. Notched first Australian win three starts back at Listed level, leading by a big margin under 59kg. Last start Geelong Cup 6th was only fair, fading late. Drops 7kg to 53kg here.

Barrier 24 is catastrophic - the worst possible draw. The pedigree with elite Galileo screams 3200m horse, but the barrier draw and fitness concerns make it extremely difficult. Market holding steady at $61 reflects the poor draw and suspect fitness.

Opportunity Score: 54/100

14. HALF YOURS

Age: 5yo Gelding

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 8

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy

Odds: $7.00 → $7.50 (steady favourite)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: St Jean (4.8% SW/RNR - 1 from 21)
• Dam Sire: Desert King (4.0% SW/RNR as BMS - 29 from 734)
• Nick: St Jean x Desert King (50.0% - 1 from 2)

Summary:

The Caulfield Cup winner and rock-solid favourite, holding steady between $7.00-$7.50. Attempting to become the 13th Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double winner. The pedigree statistics show a limited sample - St Jean has only 21 runners (1 stakes winner, 4.8%), and the nick shows 50.0% (1 from 2). However, St Jean is by Dundeel, a proven staying sire, and Desert King (by Night Shift) adds further stamina through a proven staying family.

Still lightly raced for a 5yo, suggesting natural improvement as he steps up in distance. His best two performances have come at staying trips, indicating he's a horse who improves as distances extend. Jamie Melham's Caulfield Cup ride was a masterclass. Barrier 8 is excellent for settling in a forward midfield position.

The form line of recent Caulfield Cup winners attempting the double is encouraging - Without A Fight completed it in 2023. Despite the limited sample size in pedigree stats, both breeding and form suggest he'll relish the extra 800m.

Opportunity Score: 84/100

15. MORE FELONS (IRE)

Age: 7yo Gelding

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 23

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Trainer: Chris Waller

Odds: $46 → $61 (drifting)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Churchill (4.6% SW/RNR - 29 from 627)
• Dam Sire: Pivotal (7.5% SW/RNR as BMS - 175 from 2,340)
• Nick: Churchill x Pivotal (15.4% - 2 from 13)

Summary:

Former European hurdler returning for second Cup attempt after 12th in 2023. Churchill (by Galileo) has a modest 4.6% strike rate with only 29 stakes winners from 627 runners. The Churchill x Pivotal cross shows 15.4% (2 from 13), which is above Churchill's individual rate but still modest. Pivotal damline provides speed and class, but isn't a natural stamina influence.

Resuming after nearly 18 months after tendon injury. Four runs this preparation have been sound - excellent 4th in The Metropolitan with 55kg two starts back. At 53kg, he's lightly weighted, but barrier 23 is a massive tactical problem.

The market drift from $46 to $61 reflects concerns about the extended absence and poor draw. The Galileo influence through Churchill suggests distance capability, but the modest nick rate and Pivotal damline being more about speed/class than stamina are concerns. Needs significant improvement and luck from barrier 23.

Opportunity Score: 56/100

16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA)

Age: 8yo Gelding

Weight: 53kg

Barrier: 6

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Odds: $16 → $35 (MASSIVE DRIFT - 119%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Dialed In (4.7% SW/RNR - 28 from 594)
• Dam Sire: Medaglia D'Oro (6.6% SW/RNR as BMS - 128 from 1,934)
• Nick: Dialed In x Medaglia D'Oro (25.0% - 2 from 8) ⭐⭐ EXCEPTIONAL CROSS

Summary:

THE VALUE PLAY OF THE RACE. The market has completely abandoned him, drifting from $16 to $35 (119% drift). However, the pedigree statistics tell a different story - the Dialed In x Medaglia D'Oro cross shows an exceptional 25.0% strike rate (2 stakes winners from 8 runners), five times Dialed In's individual sire rate. This is a proven, successful cross.

Won this year's Moonee Valley Gold Cup (equal or better than 2024 lead-up). Proven that he thrives in Australia. Barrier 6 versus last year's wide gate is a game-changer. At 53kg, he's perfectly weighted. Dialed In is by Mineshaft (stamina line), and the 25.0% nick with Medaglia D'Oro is exceptional.

The market's concern is clearly the 3200m query and American breeding. But the 25.0% nick rate suggests this cross produces quality, and his race record shows he handles staying trips in Australia. At $35 from opening $16, this represents extraordinary value with that elite 25.0% nick profile.

Opportunity Score: 78/100 ⭐⭐ BEST VALUE IN THE RACE

17. FURTHUR (IRE)

Age: 4yo Horse (NH 3yo)

Weight: 52kg

Barrier: 7

Jockey: Michael Dee

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Odds: $15 → $35 (MASSIVE DRIFT - 133%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Waldgeist (5.8% SW/RNR - 6 from 103)
• Dam Sire: Danetime (3.3% SW/RNR as BMS - 13 from 395)
• Nick: Waldgeist x Danetime (100% - 1 from 1) ⭐⭐⭐

Summary:

Northern hemisphere 3yo attempting to emulate Rekindling (2017) and Cross Counter (2018). The market has drifted from $15 to $35, but the pedigree tells an interesting story - the Waldgeist x Danetime nick shows 100% (1 from 1). While this is obviously just one horse (possibly Furthur himself), it's worth noting. Waldgeist (by Galileo) is an excellent staying influence, and Danetime adds stamina credentials.

Progressive colt who was a dominant Group 3 winner at Newbury before a solid 6th in the Group 1 St Leger behind Scandinavia. Not as highly touted as Rekindling or Cross Counter, which may explain the market drift. However, he's still improving and lightly raced.

Lightweight (52kg) is a major advantage. Barrier 7 is ideal. The pedigree profile with Galileo through Waldgeist suggests he'll stay all day. The massive drift from $15 to $35 seems harsh given the NH 3yo angle has worked twice this decade and the Galileo-line pedigree. Dark horse potential at $35.

Opportunity Score: 72/100

18. PARCHMENT PARTY (USA)

Age: 5yo Horse

Weight: 52kg

Barrier: 3

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: William Mott

Odds: $41 → $34 (firming slightly)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Constitution (8.8% SW/RNR - 52 from 592)
• Dam Sire: Tiznow (4.3% SW/RNR as BMS - 74 from 1,739)
• Nick: Constitution x Tiznow (17.2% - 5 from 29)

Summary:

Historic runner - first American-trained horse in Cup history. Prepared by legendary William Mott (91-time Group 1 winner). The pedigree statistics show Constitution at an 8.8% strike rate and the Constitution x Tiznow cross at 17.2% (5 from 29), which is above average. However, both are dirt-oriented American sires - strong and tough, but not traditional turf stamina influences.

Won his past two starts impressively (one at Group 3 level), but both were on dirt at Saratoga. The massive problem: he was beaten badly in his only two turf attempts earlier in 2025. This is the critical query - American dirt form doesn't translate directly to 3200m on Flemington turf.

Barrier 3 is ideal, and 52kg is perfect. John Velazquez is Hall of Fame. The historic significance is fascinating. However, the turf form is catastrophic, and despite the 17.2% nick rate, this is a dirt-oriented pedigree. Market firming slightly from $41 to $34, possibly on historic curiosity.

Opportunity Score: 28/100

19. ATHABASCAN (FR)

Age: 7yo Gelding

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 1

Jockey: Declan Bates

Trainer: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton

Odds: $101 → $61 (firming significantly)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Almanzor (4.2% SW/RNR - 24 from 573)
• Dam Sire: Dansili (7.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 152 from 1,965)
• Nick: Almanzor x Dansili (10.0% - 1 from 10)

Summary:

First Cup attempt after a much-improved Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2nd. Almanzor has a modest 4.2% strike rate - not an obvious stamina sire for extreme distances. The Almanzor x Dansili cross shows 10.0% (1 from 10), which is above Almanzor's individual rate but still modest. However, the Dansili damline is crucial - Dansili represents a strong Classic/Solid staying influence at 7.7% as BMS. Alzubra is also the dam of Arapaho (runner 3), and this family handles extreme distances.

Prior to Moonee Valley, his form was poor, beaten a total of 8 horses in three runs. That 2nd was a genuine breakthrough. Proven at 3200m with 2nd and 5th in the past two Sydney Cups. Gets in light at 51.5kg.

Barrier 1 is double-edged. The market has shown significant interest, firming from $101 to $61 - a massive move suggesting insider confidence after the Moonee Valley breakthrough. Pedigree suggests distance won't be an issue thanks to the Dansili damline. Needs to improve again, but at $61, it represents value as an improver.

Opportunity Score: 68/100

20. GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE)

Age: 7yo Mare

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 20

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Odds: $41 → $27 (FIRMING 34%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Fastnet Rock (9.0% SW/RNR - 192 from 2,122)
• Dam Sire: Galileo (8.7% SW/RNR as BMS - 389 from 4,475)
• Nick: Fastnet Rock x Galileo (19.0% - 31 from 163) ⭐ ELITE CROSS

Summary:

Fascinating prospect generating significant market interest, firming from $41 to $27. Former jumper who raced over hurdles and fences at 4000m+. The pedigree statistics are exceptional - the Fastnet Rock x Galileo cross shows an elite 19.0% strike rate (31 stakes winners from 163 runners), the same cross as Buckaroo (runner 2). This is a proven elite staying combination.

Since switching back to flat in 2025, won 3 of 5, including Group 3 in Ireland. Stamina is clearly no issue given jumping background - steeplechasers are bred for extreme endurance. The question isn't "will she stay?" but "does she have the class?" Jumping form proves she'll run all day.

Lightweight (51.5kg) helps considerably. Barrier 20 is a problem. Second string for Joseph O'Brien (also runs Al Riffa). The market plunge from $41 to $27 suggests stable confidence is real. The Galileo damline, 19.0% elite nick rate, and jumps background scream she'll stay forever. At $27, intriguing roughie with unique credentials and an elite pedigree cross.

Opportunity Score: 63/100

21. RIVER OF STARS (IRE)

Age: 7yo Mare

Weight: 51.5kg

Barrier: 14

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Trainer: Chris Waller

Odds: $15 → $17 (holding steady)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Sea The Stars (12.7% SW/RNR - 139 from 1,096)
• Dam Sire: Adlerflug (14.3% SW/RNR as BMS - 7 from 49) ⭐ ELITE BMS
• Nick: Sea The Stars x Adlerflug (33.3% - 1 from 3) ⭐⭐

Summary:

Tough staying mare with rock-solid market support at $15-17. The pedigree statistics are outstanding - Sea The Stars shows a 12.7% strike rate (139 stakes winners from 1,096 runners), and Adlerflug as broodmare sire leads the entire field at 14.3% (7 from 49). The Sea The Stars x Adlerflug nick shows 33.3% (1 from 3), while a small sample, it's encouraging, combined with those elite individual rates.

Brave 3rd in Sydney Cup before excellent 2nd in Caulfield Cup at big odds, beaten just half a length by Half Yours. She meets the Caulfield Cup winner 2.5kg better at the weights here - a significant swing. Handles all ground and will relish 3200m.

The Sea The Stars/Adlerflug combination is ideal for extreme staying-power, class, and elite stamina profiles. Progressive mare in career-best form. Barrier 14 is workable, and 51.5kg is ideal. The market stability at $15-17 reflects genuine respect. With elite BMS Adlerflug and a strong nick rate, serious winning chance.

Opportunity Score: 82/100

22. ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE)

Age: 5yo Gelding

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 21

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Odds: $34 → $27 (firming)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Master Of My Fate (5.5% SW/RNR - 32 from 586)
• Dam Sire: National Assembly (3.8% SW/RNR as BMS - 35 from 922)
• Nick: Master Of My Fate x National Assembly (0.0% - 0 from 8)

Summary:

Bought by the same ownership that won with Protectionist (2014) and Gold Trip (2022). The pedigree statistics are concerning - Master Of My Fate shows only a 5.5% strike rate, National Assembly just 3.8% as BMS, and their cross has produced 0 stakes winners from 8 runners (0.0%). This is a poor pedigree profile for staying races. Master Of My Fate (by Pivotal) isn't a traditional stamina sire.

Relatively lightly raced. Kept in work over Winter - long-term planning suggests Cup was always the target. Good Metropolitan win two back, worked home well for 5th in Caulfield Cup. Lightweight (51kg) is ideal. Barrier 21 is a significant concern.

The market has shown faith, firming from $34 to $27. The ownership/trainer combination has Melbourne Cup history. Pedigree profile with 0.0% nick rate is highly questionable for 3200m, but form progression and winning connections inspire confidence despite the statistics. Needs luck from a wide draw.

Opportunity Score: 70/100

23. TORRANZINO (NZ)

Age: 6yo Gelding

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 18

Jockey: Celine Gaudray

Trainer: Paul Preusker

Odds: $34 → $34 (steady)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Tarzino (3.3% SW/RNR - 7 from 212)
• Dam Sire: Helmet (3.4% SW/RNR as BMS - 5 from 146)
• Nick: Tarzino x Helmet (100% - 1 from 1) ⭐⭐⭐

Summary:

Kiwi fairytale story in career-best form. The pedigree statistics show modest individual rates - Tarzino at 3.3% and Helmet at 3.4% as BMS, both well below average. However, the Tarzino x Helmet nick shows 100% (1 from 1), which is likely Torranzino himself. Tarzino (by Tavistock) is a solid NZ staying influence, but Helmet damline (by Exceed And Excel) adds speed rather than stamina, creating pedigree tension.

Sat off brutal tempo in Bart Cummings when 2nd to Valiant King, then tough Geelong Cup win. Very fit after those runs, drops 5kg with no penalty. Barrier 18 is a concern. At 51kg, he's lightly weighted.

Market holding steady at $34. The modest pedigree profile (3.3% and 3.4%) suggests he might find 3200m just beyond his optimal range - Helmet influence favours speed over extreme stamina. Form is excellent and fitness is peak, but despite the 100% nick (tiny sample), the individual sire statistics suggest distance could be a query. It would be a wonderful story but faces stiff assignment.

Opportunity Score: 65/100

24. VALIANT KING (GB)

Age: 6yo Gelding

Weight: 51kg

Barrier: 10

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Trainer: Chris Waller

Odds: $7.00 → $10.00 (drifting 43%)

Pedigree Stats:

• Sire: Roaring Lion (9.1% SW/RNR - 8 from 88)
• Dam Sire: Candy Ride (4.6% SW/RNR as BMS - 47 from 1,019)
• Nick: Roaring Lion x Candy Ride (100% - 1 from 1) ⭐⭐⭐

Summary:

Second Cup attempt after midfield finish at $91 last year. The market has drifted significantly from $7.00 to $10.00 despite excellent lead-up form. The pedigree shows Roaring Lion with limited progeny (9.1% from 88 runners), Candy Ride at a modest 4.6% as BMS, and the nick at 100% (1 from 1), which is likely Valiant King himself. Roaring Lion is primarily a miler/middle-distance influence, not an obvious extreme stayer.

However, the form line is excellent. Bolted in Bart Cummings, then outstanding 3rd in Caulfield Cup after settling last from a horror barrier 20. Much better barrier this year (10 vs 20), allowing Jye McNeil to settle closer. Chris Waller has had a full year to prepare him. At 51kg, he's lightly weighted.

The pedigree isn't an obvious extreme-distance blueprint despite the 100% nick (tiny sample), which might explain the drift from $7 to $10. Recent form suggests he's ready, and the improved draw is significant. The market move suggests insiders may have concerns, but the form line and setup argue for including him.

Opportunity Score: 76/100

PEDIGREE ANALYSIS SUMMARY

ELITE NICK CROSSES (19%+):

1. Meydaan - Frankel x Dubawi (23.6%) - 13 from 55 ⭐⭐
2. Onesmoothoperator - Dialed In x Medaglia D'Oro (25.0%) - 2 from 8 ⭐⭐
3. Presage Nocturne - Wootton Bassett x Verglas (37.5%) - 3 from 8 ⭐⭐
4. Buckaroo - Fastnet Rock x Galileo (19.0%) - 31 from 163 ⭐
5. Goodie Two Shoes - Fastnet Rock x Galileo (19.0%) - 31 from 163 ⭐

STRONG NICK CROSSES (15-19%):

6. Arapaho - Lope De Vega x Dansili (16.2%) - 11 from 68
7. Land Legend - Galileo x Dansili (16.3%) - 7 from 43
8. Parchment Party - Constitution x Tiznow (17.2%) - 5 from 29

EXPLOSIVE SMALL-SAMPLE NICKS (Note: Limited Data):

• Flatten The Curve - Zarak x Teofilo (66.7%) - 2 from 3
• Furthur - Waldgeist x Danetime (100%) - 1 from 1
• Valiant King - Roaring Lion x Candy Ride (100%) - 1 from 1
• Torranzino - Tarzino x Helmet (100%) - 1 from 1
• Half Yours - St Jean x Desert King (50.0%) - 1 from 2
• Chevalier Rose - Deep Impact x Sevres Rose (50.0%) - 1 from 2
• River Of Stars - Sea The Stars x Adlerflug (33.3%) - 1 from 3
• Changingoftheguard - Galileo x Excellent Art (33.3%) - 1 from 3

CONCERNING NICK CROSSES (<10%):

• Royal Supremacy - Master Of My Fate x National Assembly (0.0%) - 0 from 8 ❌
• Smokin' Romans - Ghibellines x Yamanin Vital (4.2%) - 1 from 24 ❌
• Absurde - Fastnet Rock x Singspiel (6.25%) - 1 from 16

SELECTIONS

WIN BETS:

1. HALF YOURS ($7.00-7.50) - 2 units

Deserving favourite. Caulfield Cup winner with everything aligned - 50.0% nick (small sample but St Jean by Dundeel is proven stayer), 53kg, perfect barrier 8, quality jockey, career-best form. Without A Fight completed the double in 2023. Market steady throughout indicates genuine confidence.

2. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR ($35) - 1.5 units ⭐⭐⭐ ELITE VALUE PLAY

The market has made a huge mistake. Dialed In x Medaglia D'Oro shows an exceptional 25.0% nick rate (2 from 8) - five times Dialed In's individual sire rate. Won this year's Moonee Valley Gold Cup, ideal barrier 6, light weight 53kg, proven Australian form. At $35 from $16 opener, this is an extraordinary value with an elite pedigree profile.

PLACE/EACH-WAY BETS:

1. RIVER OF STARS ($16-17) - 2 units each-way

Outstanding pedigree profile - Sea The Stars (12.7%), elite Adlerflug BMS (14.3% - highest in field), and Sea The Stars x Adlerflug nick (33.3%). Caulfield Cup 2nd, meets Half Yours 2.5kg better. Career-best form, handles all conditions. Serious winning chance with elite pedigree statistics.

2. PRESAGE NOCTURNE ($9.00) - 1.5 units each-way

Exceptional 37.5% Wootton Bassett x Verglas nick (3 from 8) - quadruple Wootton Bassett's individual rate. French staying form excellent (3000m+ winner, 3rd in the same race Americain won before 2010 Cup victory). Caulfield Cup 4th was strong. Rock-solid market support. Pedigree screams 3200m.

3. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR ($35) - 2 units each-way

As above - outstanding 25.0% nick value play. The drift from $16 makes no sense given the elite pedigree profile and improved setup.

4. BUCKAROO ($11-12) - 1 unit each-way

Elite 19.0% Fastnet Rock x Galileo nick (31 from 163) - proven staying cross, same as Goodie Two Shoes. Cox Plate form a strong Cup indicator. Much better draw (12 vs wide last year). Despite drift, the elite pedigree profile and form warrant inclusion.

5. ROYAL SUPREMACY ($27) - 1 unit each-way

Winning ownership/connections despite a poor 0.0% nick rate. Metropolitan winner, 5th Caulfield Cup. Lightweight (51kg) perfect. Barrier 21 concern. Market firming suggests insider confidence overrides modest pedigree statistics.

6. VALIANT KING ($10) - 1 unit each-way

Despite drift and modest pedigree profile, form line excellent (Bart Cummings win, Caulfield Cup 3rd from barrier 20). Much better draw this year (10), lightweight (51kg). Roheryn dam family produces stayers (see Buckaroo's 19.0% nick). Value at $10.

SAVER BETS (Small Stakes):

MEYDAAN ($23) - 0.5 units each-way

Elite 23.6% Frankel x Dubawi nick (13 from 55) with Frankel's exceptional 17.3% sire rate. Crisford's brought the 2023 winner Without A Fight. James McDonald booking is huge. Barrier 22 concern, but an elite pedigree profile with proven cross.

ABSURDE ($17) - 0.5 units each-way

Third attempt, improving yearly (7th, 5th). Ideal barrier 4, lightweight 53.5kg. Proven at the trip despite a modest 6.25% nick. Consistent.

ATHABASCAN ($61) - 0.5 units each-way

Breakthrough Moonee Valley 2nd, Dansili damline (7.7% BMS) screams stayer despite modest 10.0% nick. Proven at 3200m (Sydney Cup placed). Firmed from $101 to $61 - massive move suggests insider confidence.

GOODIE TWO SHOES ($27) - 0.5 units each-way

Elite 19.0% Fastnet Rock x Galileo nick (same as Buckaroo), jumps background proves stamina. Firmed from $41 to $27 - 34% move. Barrier 20 concern but unique credentials with elite proven cross.

EXOTICS STRATEGY:

QUINELLA: 14-Half Yours / 21-River Of Stars / 6-Presage Nocturne / 16-Onesmoothoperator / 2-Buckaroo

TRIFECTA (Boxed):

14-Half Yours / 21-River Of Stars / 6-Presage Nocturne / 16-Onesmoothoperator / 2-Buckaroo / 8-Meydaan

FIRST FOUR (Boxed):

14-Half Yours / 21-River Of Stars / 6-Presage Nocturne / 16-Onesmoothoperator / 2-Buckaroo

FINAL CONFIDENCE RATINGS

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 ONESMOOTHOPERATOR ($35) - ELITE 25.0% NICK - BEST VALUE

🔥🔥🔥🔥 HALF YOURS ($7.50) - Deserved favourite, everything aligns

🔥🔥🔥🔥 RIVER OF STARS ($17) - Elite Adlerflug BMS + 33.3% nick

🔥🔥🔥🔥 PRESAGE NOCTURNE ($9) - Exceptional 37.5% nick, European form

🔥🔥🔥 BUCKAROO ($12) - Elite 19.0% nick despite drift

🔥🔥🔥 MEYDAAN ($23) - Outstanding 23.6% Frankel x Dubawi cross

🔥🔥 VALIANT KING ($10) - Excellent form overrides modest pedigree

🔥🔥 ROYAL SUPREMACY ($27) - Winning connections despite 0.0% nick

The 165TH Lexus Melbourne Cup promises to be memorable. The pedigree analysis reveals fascinating statistical patterns - elite nicks like Onesmoothoperator's 25.0% Dialed In x Medaglia D'Oro cross and Presage Nocturne's 37.5% Wootton Bassett x Verglas combination provide genuine edges. The race that stops a nation awaits.

Good luck!