TAB Australian Cup (G1) – Race Preview & Pedigree Selections
Date: Saturday, 29 March 2025
Track: Flemington (VIC, Australia)
Race: Race 8 – TAB Australian Cup (4:15 pm AEDT)
Distance: 2000m
Class: Group 1 | 3YO+ | Set Weights & Penalties
Race Overview
The TAB Australian Cup is among Australia’s most prestigious weight-for-age races for middle-distance gallopers. Run over 2000 metres at Flemington, it’s a true test of tactical speed, stamina, and race-day management. Past winners include legends such as Makybe Diva, Northerly, and Lonhro, showcasing the quality this event consistently draws.
The 2025 edition features several proven Group 1 performers, emerging talent, and mares returning in strong form. A fast tempo is expected, with a mix of on-speed aggressors and powerful closers shaping the field dynamics.
Field Summary
- Total runners: 14
- Track condition: Good 4 (forecast at time of writing)
- Market leader: Pride Of Jenni (approx. $2.80 - $3.20)
- Other market fancies: Atishu, Young Werther, Attrition
How G1 Goldmine Ratings Work
- Perfect Match: The horse's pedigree matches a statistically strong cross that appears 15x more often in stakes winners than slow horses.
- 20/20 Match: A strong match appears 5x more often in stakes winners.
- These pedigree ratings are based on historical performance data and cross-strike rates across all major jurisdictions.
Top 4 Selections (Pedigree + Form-Based Analysis)
🥇 1. Pride Of Jenni
Rating: 20/20 Match
Pedigree: By Pride Of Dubai out of Sancerre (O’Reilly)
Key Strengths:
- Dominant Group 2 winner fresh (Peter Young Stakes, 1800m)
- Front-running style ideally suited to Flemington’s spacious straight
- Over A$3.5 million in prize money across a stellar career
Sire × Dam Sire cross delivers stakes winners at 15.4% from 13 runners
Connections: Ciaron Maher (trainer) | Craig Newitt (jockey)
Market Odds: ~$3.00 (favourite)
🥈 2. Atishu
Rating: Perfect Match
Pedigree: By Savabeel out of Posy (No Excuse Needed)
Key Strengths:
- Strong 5th in the All-Star Mile; better suited over 2000m
- Perfect Match rating + sire and cross metrics both above benchmark
- Consistent strike rates across all pedigree measures (Sire 71% W/Rnrs)
Over A$5.7 million in earnings
Connections: Chris Waller (trainer) | Blake Shinn (jockey)
Market Odds: ~$5.50 – $7.00
🥉 3. Attrition
Rating: 20/20 Match
Pedigree: By Churchill (IRE) out of Queen’s Kiss (French Deputy)
Key Strengths:
- Cross sample: 2 runners / 2 winners, including 1 stakes winner
- Pedigree suggests strong middle-distance aptitude
Impressive profile for a 5YO who continues to improve
Connections: Mitchell Freedman (trainer) | John Allen (jockey)
Market Odds: ~$8.50 – $11.00
🏅 4. Zardozi
Rating: 20/20 Match
Pedigree: By Kingman (GB) out of Chanderi (Dubawi)
Key Strengths:
- Strong cross stats (Kingman × Dubawi) producing elite milers
- Excellent late speed and expected to peak 3rd-up
Stakes-performer with upside stepping to ideal trip
Connections: James Cummings (trainer) | Jamie Mott (jockey)
Market Odds: ~$12.00 – $16.00
Race Shape & Tactics
The pace looks solid, with Pride Of Jenni and Deny Knowledge expected to roll forward early. This could create a genuine tempo that will suit strong finishers like Atishu and Zardozi, especially if there's any mid-race pressure.
Horses mapping mid-field with cover could be best positioned to capitalise in the final 400m. Tactical decisions from the top gates will be crucial.
Horses to Watch (Outside the Top 4)
- Young Werther: Talented, consistent stayer who is always around the mark. 20/20 Match rating.
- Middle Earth: Import with strong credentials; watch market.
- Lunar Flare: Older mare with proven 2400m form; strong finisher.
Why Use G1 Goldmine?
Our top 4 selections were created using the G1 Goldmine pedigree engine, which evaluates:
- Match quality between Sire and Dam Sire
- Historical strike rates of pedigree crosses
- Winners-to-runners and stakes-winners ratios
- Earnings potential, performance consistency, and racing class
We then layered on market data, recent form, and tactical map to give a holistic view.
Try This Yourself
Want to analyse your own runners or sale prospects?
Sign up for free at www.g1goldmine.com, and you’ll gain access to:
- Pedigree match alerts (Perfect Match, 20/20 Match)
- Sire × Dam Sire analysis for any horse
- Cross-strike rates based on winners and stakes winners
- In-depth stats used by top breeders, owners, and buyers
Example:
Our analysis of Southport Tycoon, a multiple Group 1 winner, flagged him as a Perfect Match using G1 Goldmine before he ever raced at the Magic Millions sales.
That’s pedigree-backed foresight — and it’s free to try.